
\begin{table}[htbp]
   \caption{\label{tab:cw_persistence} Civil War Onset: Persistent instability?}
   \centering
   \begin{tabular}{lcccc}
      \tabularnewline \midrule \midrule
      Dependent Variable: & \multicolumn{4}{c}{Ethnic civil war onset $\times 100$}\\
      Model:                                   & (1)           & (2)            & (3)           & (4)\\  
      \midrule
      \emph{Variables}\\
      Lost home rule or lost unity             & 0.3173$^{**}$ & 0.3508$^{***}$ & 0.3515$^{**}$ &   \\   
                                               & (0.0926)      & (0.0975)       & (0.1071)      &   \\   
      No. battles (1000-1800, log)             & -0.0926       & -0.0609        & -0.0595       & -0.0568\\   
                                               & (0.1073)      & (0.1289)       & (0.1234)      & (0.1256)\\   
      Lost home rule or lost unity (post-1816) &               &                &               & 0.4595$^{**}$\\   
                                               &               &                &               & (0.1458)\\   
      Lost home rule or lost unity (pre-1816)  &               &                &               & 0.2694$^{*}$\\   
                                               &               &                &               & (0.1148)\\   
      \midrule
      \emph{Fixed-effects}\\
      Year                                     & Yes           & Yes            & Yes           & Yes\\  
      Peace year                               & Yes           & Yes            & Yes           & Yes\\  
      State                                    &               & Yes            & Yes           & Yes\\  
      Border duration                          &               &                & Yes           & Yes\\  
      Baseline controls                        & Yes           & Yes            & Yes           & Yes\\  
      Extended controls &  &  & Yes & Yes & Yes\\
      \midrule
      \emph{Fit statistics}\\
      Observations                             & 40,142        & 40,142         & 40,142        & 39,971\\  
      \midrule \midrule
      \multicolumn{5}{l}{\emph{Clustered (State \& Aggregate group) standard-errors in parentheses}}\\
      \multicolumn{5}{l}{\emph{Signif. Codes: ***: 0.001, **: 0.01, *: 0.05, +: 0.1}}\\
   \end{tabular}
   
   \par \raggedright 
   \parbox[t]{\width=\textwidth}{\textbf{Notes:} OLS estimates of Civil War Onsets. The unit of analysis is the ethnic segment year. 
          Baseline controls: segment area relative to state-leading group, ethnic division dummy, national unity dummy. 
          Extended controls: logged country, aggregate group, and segment size in sqkm; ethnic fractionalization of country and aggregate group;
          logged distance to capital; war history (past years with ongoing civil war);
          time since last border change (FE). Standard errors clustered on country and aggregate ethnic group in parentheses.
          Significance codes: ***: 0.001, **: 0.01, *: 0.05, +: 0.1}
\end{table}


